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OK, ADV has cancelled Newtype and closed their British office and now Germany too and cancelled their club program. Everyone keeps saying everythings fine or whatever but is it really? Is ADV going out of business? What do you think? Is there even going to be a R1 industry anymore? Let's get one thing straight - it is not at all unreasonable to be concerned about the repeated cutback announcements coming out of ADV. The folks who seem hell-bent on dismissing any kind of reasonable pessimism about either ADV or the health of the R1 industry as "sky is falling" reactionary panic are, to be honest, sticking their heads in the sand.The R1 industry is not doing very well right now. Geneon collapsed, and now ADV is starting to look worrisome. Regardless of how you can spin the news, the fact is they've announced a long string of cutbacks, and no matter your take on the issue that's usually not an indicator of positive business growth.What I see happening at ADV is, to me, pretty clear - they're trimming the fat, tightening an obviously already-tight belt, getting rid of nonessential expenses. Most of the programs they've announced as being dismantled all seemed like money losers to me - Newtype USA was a fantastically expensive publication to produce, the linear Anime Network channel must've been costing them a fortune and never saw any kind of real penetration into the mainstream cable market, the ADV clubs thing was essentially charity combined with the hope that sending out thousands of free DVDs to anime clubs would stimulate sales, and the Euro markets I don't think have ever been a cornerstone of solid business for any R1 anime company I've ever known.While it could be explained away as simple fat-trimming, many of these are long-term projects that seeded years ago. These are expensive failures. There's nothing to indicate that ADV's real business - licensing, marketing and distributing anime on DVD - is in trouble, but all of those expensive, risky projects must add up. It's possible that this is the smoke before the fire, but we have no new information and so it's irresponsible to say that there's something going on otherwise, but this is a lot of smoke, in my estimation. But this could be it, just some essential fat-trimming; we might not see any more announcements. Nobody really knows at this point, except the people inside ADV, and they're not talking.Frankly, I think it all speaks to the way things are going right now: not good. We're seeing a dramatic shift in the way business needs to be done. Do I think the R1 industry as it exists right now will continue on? For a while, maybe; obviously there are enough people buying DVDs to keep these companies afloat. But the fact is, and this has been pointed out a bazillion times, that the market has proven that there are a LOT of anime fans who want to watch it but not have to buy a DVD. So they absolutely have to find a way to monetize that, a way to make money off of those eyeballs. I think pessimism about the way things are right now, especially if you're worried about more companies going down or having trouble, is completely reasonable. I don't think the ship is sinking, but it's pretty battered and bruised and we're still navigating the reef and fighting off pirates, and I'm not sure when the coast guard is going to show up. They might not.Nautical metaphors. Love 'em.


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